The following are my thoughts on why we won’t see two way TRAIN service to Guelph and Kitchener anytime soon, despite any percieved market demand:
First of all, the argument for two way service is quite simple — a large proportion of workers commute to Kitchener-Waterloo to the various Technology and Insurance companies in the area from downtown Toronto or the GTA. This fact has been acknowledged by the Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/globe-to/torontonians-commuting-to-waterloo-frustrated-by-go-transits-new-rail-link/article2250390/
Does reverse commuting out of Toronto exist? Yes! Toronto to Hamilton clearly exists by bus, and partially by train/bus, as does limited commuting from Toronto to Brampton. There is indeed precedent.
But, what stands in the way of two-way commuter train services to Kitchener?
- The Guelph subdivision (as the line from Georgetown, to Kitchener and onward to London) is Dark Territory. This means no signals and few passing sidings for two trains to meet each other in opposite directions
- Dark territory reduces the capacity of a railway line (Density, how close two trains can be to each other) and has operational limits to capacity
- With the current environment in mind, there are now 4 GO trains, 6 VIA trains and 6 freight trains between Georgetown and Kitchener on a daily basis. I still firmly believe this is the highest passenger carrying capacity of any dark-territory railway line in Canada, and this dark-territory line is running at capacity. So with this in mind:
- The last GO train departs Guelph in the morning at 0732 and clears the Guelph subdivision at Georgetown at 0800
- The first GO train westward to Kitchener would depart Georgetown after 0800 and arrive at Guelph no earlier than 8:33AM, and Kitchener no earlier than 8:55 AM
- The return Kitchener-Toronto GO train would need to beat the first GO Toronto westward trip in the afternoon, which would mean arrival at Georgetown before 5:46 PM
- The return GO trip from Kitchener to Toronto would depart Kitchener no later than 4:54 PM, Guelph no later than 5:16PM, and arrive Georgetown at 5:49 PM
As you can see, the current schedule is already very tight — there is no place for two trains to meet without significant time delays between Kitchener and Georgetown and this would throw the reverse (Toronto t0 Kitchener, and Kitchener back to Toront0) commute into dissaray, as the arrival and departure times required of the reverse trip is barely enough time for a worker to get in a full work day.
Furthermore, the proposed westward trip now has freight train(s) to deal with as they are operating between the GO trains in the morning and afternoon hours.
Lastly, adding a reverse commuter train would probably require GO to have two engines and 10 coaches available, as they would park in Kitchener for the afternoon hours and this would require a capital cost ($2.5 million per double decker car, $5m per engine) of $30 million just for one departure from Toronto.
Hence, in summary, the following would be required to make room for reverse train commuting, and would be one of many possible choices:
- Capital cost of $30M for acquisition of new trains dedicated to reverse commuting, for each train departure to be added, AND
- Significant improvements to the Railway plant and property – in the least Centralized Traffic Control to Kitchener, at an estimated cost of $50 million (Refernce: RJ Burnside, Kitchener Expansion EA)
- Addition of a CTC controlled passing siding at Guelph, or an extension of CTC to Guelph at a reduced cost ($25 million) to allow two GO trains to meet at 732 AM and 6:18 PM at Guelph Central Station (This will require the completion of the South platform at Guelph)
As you can see, the bottom line is a reverse commuter train movement is a minimum $30-60M investment, which is double to triple the cost of adding the eastward existing GO trains. If the demands warrants it, I would be hopeful, in light of our current Ontario annual road budget ($700-1B per year) that this is considered as an alternative to highway widening, but it most certainly will take time and may or may not fall under the existing EA (How long are EA’s good for?). Any reverse commuter train option would be years away from fruition if it was feasible of course.
However, in light of the fact that a Bus option for reverse commuting does not even exist today, this would be a good first step, and yes, the market demand must be proven before it can be considered for further expansion.
Please feel free to comment below, any corrections will be incorporated into the above as time permits.